Published on 17 September 2020

Let’s pause obsessing over the future of online vs hybrid vs in-person events for a moment and consider the whole picture of an association’s business model. With so much uncertainty around, I want to look at where we can find hope in established models and principles, and where we should be fearful of damaging disruption that may still come. When reflecting on this I took a step back from association specifics and found this HBR article with a helpful summary of fundamental business model forms and examples.

He highlighted the well-known story of Blockbuster and how their lucrative late fees on DVD rentals hooked them on a model that was detached from the value of the service their customer was really buying. Another parallel could be the exclusivity and margins of physical media (CDs) in the music industry which resisted the shift to digital – in both cases, reliable access to “easy money” created huge resistance to change. In other words, it is natural that associations, just like other businesses, have readily accepted that consistent earnings from events subsidise year-round activities.

Events are still the answer… yes, but

Personally, I still have hope for large, in-person events to return and be better than ever – they are a multifaceted (bundled) product, not just content (which we are now sure can be delivered well online), also vibrant networking full of easy introductions, chance encounters and non-verbal communications), plus the experience of being in a specifically selected space or location, and enjoying the atmosphere, food and culture.

Technology improvement coupled with organisers’ ability to use it and attendees’ familiarity and acceptance of it has seen virtual events rapidly multiply, with the good ones developing into genuinely engaging content and networking platforms. This means we can keep essential gatherings that are not possible in-person until the COVID situation improves, and enjoy the positive side effect that we can also reach new audiences online, all year round (but at what cost? More on that later).

The downside of course is that we miss the 3D, multi-sensory experience that in-person, onsite events provide. Connecting and learning from home is convenient and infinitely better than not meeting at all, but most of us will do this from the same work from home or office environment with our ever present “connected distractions” and standard office technology which limits the immersion.

Again, technology innovators will be seizing this opportunity but the day when things like VR headsets are as ubiquitous in every home or office as laptops, tablets or smartphones is years away. Compare these forecast sales for VR headsets with the volume of laptops already in circulation – most event organisers need reach to maximise audiences and commercial viability so they must design for the most readily accessible technology, even if it limits what the end product could be.

Regardless of the limitations of virtual events, the good news for attendees is they have given a long overdue kick in the behind to tired and uninspired event formats. However, whilst organisers are hard at work on new designs to ensure the effort and costs of attending an in-person event is worthwhile, the big question is when can they restart and when will they be the same – especially international gatherings?

From IATA’s late July forecast, “Global passenger traffic will not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024, a year later than previously projected.”

2024! And yes, they are talking about all those business travellers who used to jet around the planet for association events.

Questions of profit and purpose for the digital association

So, if we need to get digital fast, where is the hope for ill-prepared (and not usually agile) association business models? One advantage associations have today is that they can draw from the harsh lessons already learned from the music and media industries who initially resisted change to their money making models and then saw massive chunks of their revenue from physical products swept away in the digital wave, never to return.

However, in the immediate panic as the COVID crisis hit, many associations rushed online and over-served members and non-members alike with tons of free online content and events. All this was done with the right intentions, but if we continue anchoring the expectation that online ​= free, we must be aware of the consequences.

Imagine what would happen if associations went through what the newspaper world went through during its shift to digital.

He highlighted the well-known story of Blockbuster and how their lucrative late fees on DVD rentals hooked them on a model that was detached from the value of the service their customer was really buying. Another parallel could be the exclusivity and margins of physical media (CDs) in the music industry which resisted the shift to digital – in both cases, reliable access to “easy money” created huge resistance to change. In other words, it is natural that associations, just like other businesses, have readily accepted that consistent earnings from events subsidise year-round activities.

He highlighted the well-known story of Blockbuster and how their lucrative late fees on DVD rentals hooked them on a model that was detached from the value of the service their customer was really buying.